Post by Charlie SpringerPost by Mike HoreDid you mean Poisson, or was that deliberate? Ummm... I'd think that
any system that aims to predict random numbers would be "poison" -- our
universe just doesn't seem to work that way ;-
Yes, but I thought the misspelling looked appropriate :-)
There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel and the payout is 35 to one.
OK then, right off the top of my head this looks like a random walk
problem in 2 dimensions, with a probability of a step up of 35 units
being 1/38, and the probablility of a step down of 1 unit being
37/38.
I forget how the math goes after that, but it looks like after N
steps your average position is going to be down by 3/38 * N ???
Of course your might get lucky on a particular day, but on other days
you're bank is going to run out. In the long run the house's bank wins.
It always does ;-)
Post by Charlie SpringerMy calculations (and simulations) showed a 50% chance of a given number being
a winner within the first 26 spins. The break-even point is 35 spins.
Something's up. This means if each day I decide on 30 spins, it's going
to cost me say $30 at a dollar a spin, but I've got a better than 50% chance
of winning $35? So over a year I'm very likely to be ahead? I'm not sure
where the error is, but that just can't be right.
Post by Charlie SpringerThe problem is twofold. First, there is an infinitly long tail to the curve
(according to the distribution you are most likely to hit on the first spin.
Does this mean you should pick a new number each time? No, but it can get
confusing). Second and rather insignificant, I think the Poisson in this case
is an approximation to a binomial distribution where with large numbers of
trials the approximation is very close.
I tried it out Friday and made $200 into $6,000 in about 5 hours and reduced
it back to $400 on Saturday! Darn! I could have had a quad G5 and Grid
Mathematica with a couple thousand left over!
Hmmm... I think even if you decide on a "quit when ahead" strategy, some
days you'll never be ahead...
Post by Charlie SpringerAs a friend from Stanford said, "If you are teaching physics and playing
roulette you should be hospitalized!"
Spot on, mate! :-)
Cheers, Mike.
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Mike Hore ***@OVE.invalid.bigpond.com
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