Discussion:
Anybody home?
(too old to reply)
Charlie Springer
2006-05-08 23:13:31 UTC
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Hey, I have not visited here in a long time. How is OSX mops these days?

-- Charlie Springer
Jim Tittsler
2006-05-09 10:46:02 UTC
Permalink
There has been some work on a 64 bit version. You can fetch a beta
version from SourceForge.
<http://sourceforge.net/project/showfiles.php?group_id=152075>

Mike has in the past couple of days been talking about creating a new
"official" release on the beta mailing list.
<http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/forum.php?forum=powermops-beta>
Mike Hore
2006-05-12 01:36:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Tittsler
There has been some work on a 64 bit version. You can fetch a beta
version from SourceForge.
<http://sourceforge.net/project/showfiles.php?group_id=152075>
Mike has in the past couple of days been talking about creating a new
"official" release on the beta mailing list.
<http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/forum.php?forum=powermops-beta>
Hi again Charlie, long time no post!!

Most of the Mops development discussion has migrated to the beta
mailing list since a lot of the stuff we've been discussing relates
to beta testing sorts of issues which didn't need to be completely
public. You're welcome to join via the link above if you want to!

64-bit, Mach-O -- a lot of good stuff is just about ready for the
light of day.

Cheers, Mike.

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Charlie Springer
2006-05-14 07:52:22 UTC
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Post by Mike Hore
Hi again Charlie, long time no post!!
Yes. I'm a high school physics teacher now and it has been keeping me pretty
busy till I work out a system. I'm the only physics teacher and teach
Advanced Placement Physics, Concept Physics, and Physical Science.

I'm in a little place called Sequim (Say Skwim -- local Indian tribe name)
Washington. Check Yahoo or Google Maps if you like. The biggest drawback is a
casino less than two miles away and a silly theory that I can use the Poison
distribution to beat the casino at roulette. I have been running lots of
simulations and it looks like you just have to be there when there is a
cluster that matches the numbers you decide to bet. But it is great fun
watching all the people with theories.

The school I'm at banned all Macs due to misguided administrative boobs. The
physics storeroom has $40,000 worth of equipment for use with Macs (much
never opened) and a previous generation of interfaces for Apple II, either of
which works fine for the data rates and analysis in high school labs. So,
I'll be with a different school system next year.

I have bookmarked the sourceforge mailing list.

Heading into winter about now? I'm looking forward to two plus months of
summer break.

-- Charlie Springer
Mike Hore
2006-05-14 22:38:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charlie Springer
Post by Mike Hore
Hi again Charlie, long time no post!!
Yes. I'm a high school physics teacher now and it has been keeping me pretty
busy till I work out a system. I'm the only physics teacher and teach
Advanced Placement Physics, Concept Physics, and Physical Science.
I'm in a little place called Sequim (Say Skwim -- local Indian tribe name)
Washington. Check Yahoo or Google Maps if you like. The biggest drawback is a
casino less than two miles away and a silly theory that I can use the Poison
distribution
Did you mean Poisson, or was that deliberate? Ummm... I'd think that
any system that aims to predict random numbers would be "poison" -- our
universe just doesn't seem to work that way ;-)

Of course people will always try -- but basically reality seems to insist
on information only going one way -- and not faster than C, at that...

(Yes, there's a little bit of interest in Physics showing there --
I do have periods of being addicted to arXiv, though I sure don't
follow it all... )

...
Post by Charlie Springer
The school I'm at banned all Macs due to misguided administrative boobs. The
physics storeroom has $40,000 worth of equipment for use with Macs (much
never opened) and a previous generation of interfaces for Apple II, either of
which works fine for the data rates and analysis in high school labs. So,
I'll be with a different school system next year.
Good grief. You'd think they'd learn.
Post by Charlie Springer
I have bookmarked the sourceforge mailing list.
Heading into winter about now? I'm looking forward to two plus months of
summer break.
I'm too far north to really have winter (12 deg south). We get a dry
season. It still gets up to 30 deg C or so every day, but it's not too
humid so we all love it.

Cheers, Mike.


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Charlie Springer
2006-05-15 01:41:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Hore
Did you mean Poisson, or was that deliberate? Ummm... I'd think that
any system that aims to predict random numbers would be "poison" -- our
universe just doesn't seem to work that way ;-
Yes, but I thought the misspelling looked appropriate :-)

There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel and the payout is 35 to one.

My calculations (and simulations) showed a 50% chance of a given number being
a winner within the first 26 spins. The break-even point is 35 spins.

The problem is twofold. First, there is an infinitly long tail to the curve
(according to the distribution you are most likely to hit on the first spin.
Does this mean you should pick a new number each time? No, but it can get
confusing). Second and rather insignificant, I think the Poisson in this case
is an approximation to a binomial distribution where with large numbers of
trials the approximation is very close.

I tried it out Friday and made $200 into $6,000 in about 5 hours and reduced
it back to $400 on Saturday! Darn! I could have had a quad G5 and Grid
Mathematica with a couple thousand left over!

As a friend from Stanford said, "If you are teaching physics and playing
roulette you should be hospitalized!"

-- Charlie
Mike Hore
2006-05-15 03:52:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charlie Springer
Post by Mike Hore
Did you mean Poisson, or was that deliberate? Ummm... I'd think that
any system that aims to predict random numbers would be "poison" -- our
universe just doesn't seem to work that way ;-
Yes, but I thought the misspelling looked appropriate :-)
There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel and the payout is 35 to one.
OK then, right off the top of my head this looks like a random walk
problem in 2 dimensions, with a probability of a step up of 35 units
being 1/38, and the probablility of a step down of 1 unit being
37/38.

I forget how the math goes after that, but it looks like after N
steps your average position is going to be down by 3/38 * N ???

Of course your might get lucky on a particular day, but on other days
you're bank is going to run out. In the long run the house's bank wins.
It always does ;-)
Post by Charlie Springer
My calculations (and simulations) showed a 50% chance of a given number being
a winner within the first 26 spins. The break-even point is 35 spins.
Something's up. This means if each day I decide on 30 spins, it's going
to cost me say $30 at a dollar a spin, but I've got a better than 50% chance
of winning $35? So over a year I'm very likely to be ahead? I'm not sure
where the error is, but that just can't be right.
Post by Charlie Springer
The problem is twofold. First, there is an infinitly long tail to the curve
(according to the distribution you are most likely to hit on the first spin.
Does this mean you should pick a new number each time? No, but it can get
confusing). Second and rather insignificant, I think the Poisson in this case
is an approximation to a binomial distribution where with large numbers of
trials the approximation is very close.
I tried it out Friday and made $200 into $6,000 in about 5 hours and reduced
it back to $400 on Saturday! Darn! I could have had a quad G5 and Grid
Mathematica with a couple thousand left over!
Hmmm... I think even if you decide on a "quit when ahead" strategy, some
days you'll never be ahead...
Post by Charlie Springer
As a friend from Stanford said, "If you are teaching physics and playing
roulette you should be hospitalized!"
Spot on, mate! :-)

Cheers, Mike.


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